As 2022 Election Results Roll In: Concern, Context & Perspective

Written By Guest User

Nov 10, 2022 | Our best guest insights to keep in mind during these polarizing midterm elections

The 2022 election results will consume us all over the coming days, weeks, even months. There are numerous razor-thin races, recounts of recounts and court decisions ahead before a new Congress takes shape.

In this episode, The Purple Principle highlights the obvious concerns surrounding this election, with many GOP candidates questioning election integrity, while also providing context and perspective from a variety of recent guests.

For Sarah Longwell of the Republican Accountability Project, the question coming into focus is whether Democrats nominated “broadly appealing candidates” who attracted sufficient swing voters away from “super Trumpy” candidates.

Thomas Edsall of The New York Times asks what it means for elections and governance if the delusional party, meaning the GOP, does take control of one or both chambers of Congress.

Not all is doom, gloom and delusion, however. Dr. Adrienne Jones of Morehouse College finds a silver lining in the closely contested U.S. Senate race in Georgia between Democratic incumbent Raphael Warnock and GOP challenger Hershel Walker–the first such race between two African American candidates in Georgia history.

Mike Madrid, co-host of The Latino Vote podcast and co-founder of The Lincoln Project, proposes that the growing clout and diversity of Latino voters in 2022 and future elections may help moderate political rhetoric from both parties.

Bill Walker, former independent Governor of Alaska and a 2022 gubernatorial candidate, reminds us what could result from Alaska’s first-in-the-nation ranked choice voting election for federal and state offices. Namely, elected officials becoming more focused on problem solving and less driven by their next primary battle.

And Dr. Charles Bullock, the respected University of Georgia political scientist, proposes a recalculation of former President Trump's endorsement “batting average” in the wake of so many electoral losses, while suggesting the GOP leadership could distance itself from Trump as a result.

Tune in for these and many other important insights on and around the 2022 election and its aftermath, with additional wisdom from The Latino Vote podcast co-host Chuck Rocha, noted author Joel Kotkin, Duke Polarization Lab Director Chris Bail, and former Congressman Will B. Hurd, among others.

The Purple Principle is a Fluent Knowledge production.
Original music by Ryan Adair Rooney

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  • Sarah Longwell:

    And really the contours of all the races are the same to me, which is, can Democrats put up broadly appealing candidates that can pick up swing voters who don’t like these super Trumpy candidates who are well outside the mainstream and who are likely to say really crazy things during the course of the election.

    Robert Pease (host):

    That’s Sarah Longwell of the Republican Accountability Project and The Bulwark. She’s a conservative who’s been sounding the alarm about large elements of the GOP this election year. But also sounding off about the electability of Democrats running against those super Trumpy candidates as well as the popularity of some Biden administration policies.

    Sarah Longwell:

    But also I think for us as for, you know, conservatives or people with conservative-ish leanings, we don't love the Biden administration with all these big swings being prioritized over sort of small wins.

    Robert Pease (host):

    Did those big swings add to the inflation that’s been polling at the top of voter concerns this election season?

    [Archival, ABC News Report on ABC/Ipsos Poll]

    ABC News Reporter:

    ...our latest ABC News/Ipsos poll asks voters what is the single most important issue to them this election day. Take a look, the economy and inflation topping the list.

    Robert Pease (host):

    I’m Robert Pease, and on this Purple Principle we’re looking at the 2022 midterms through the perspective of our insightful recent guests. People like GOP watchdog Sarah Longwell but also longtime analyst of the Democratic Party and of U.S. voter identity, Thomas Edsall of The New York Times.

    Thomas Edsall:

    Yeah. I mean, clearly, Trump and the excesses he and his supporters have undertaken, particularly the denial of the truth of the past election, are going to be, I think, central issues in the, the next few campaigns.

    Robert Pease (host):

    Edsall's weekly column for The New York Times is one of the deepest, most thoughtful dives in mainstream media.

    Thomas Edsall:

    What's intriguing really, is that a party that is delusional, the Republican Party at this point, could actually, and is the favorite to, win control of the House and it's a 50-50 shot in the Senate.

    Robert Pease (host):

    And foremost among those delusions are GOP concerns about 2020 election integrity developing into something like a party platform for the 2022 campaign

    [Archival, CBS News Report]

    CBS News Reporter:

    ...just over 50% of all GOP candidates expressed doubts about the results of the 2020 election. And it's not just, you know, a certain subsection of states--

    Robert Pease (host):

    If Esdall is correct in his forecast that the GOP wins back all or part of Congress, the U.S. will then have divided government in 2023 with fractious battles over not only elections but the budget, the debt ceiling, just about any issue preferred by one or both parties to rally their base. Immigration reform, for one important example. That’s been gridlocked for 35 years. But there are informed pragmatists out there advocating bipartisan solutions, such as former 3-term Congress member Will Hurd from our Texas state series.

    Will Hurd:

    Look at the place we are right now. We have a real crisis on our southern border. The amount of illegal immigration, the amount of drugs that are coming into our country is the highest it's ever been. And so, streamlining legal immigration would help reduce some of that pressure that we're seeing on the border. When you look at industry needs workers, every industry is looking to hire, guess what, you know, streamlining legal immigration would help with that problem.

    Robert Pease (host):

    A moderate Republican, Will Hurd crossed the aisle on many issues in his time in Congress. And he was elected to three terms with help from Latino swing voters. We spoke with fellow Texan, the Democratic strategist Chuck Rocha, about the importance of these Latino voters not just in border states but throughout the country this election.

    Chuck Rocha:

    How big of an effect is the Latino vote going to be in Latino voters on the midterms? They will literally decide who's gonna control Senate, the Senate because of races in Nevada. A lot of Latinos. Arizona, huge Latinos. Georgia, a million Latinos. Pennsylvania, 400,000 Puerto Ricans and in Wisconsin where there are more brown voters than black voters. That's just the Senate.

    Robert Pease (host):

    Rocha hosts The Latino Vote podcast with Mike Madrid, a centrist GOP strategist. Madrid is watching whether the growing importance of Hispanic voters could help moderate our politics in 2022 and future elections.

    Mike Madrid:

    Yeah, so I believe one of the potentials, one of the great promises of what I refer to as the Latinization of America is a moderation of the rhetoric in our body politic.

    Robert Pease (host):

    Mike Madrid was also a co-founder of The Lincoln Project.

    Mike Madrid:

    It's gonna make the Democratic Party focus more on the working class, that it is rapidly, rapidly losing working class voters. And it's gonna make the Republican Party focus more on multiethnic and multiracial coalitions as it is rapidly, rapidly losing those voters at the same time. That's the potential. That's the promise.

    Robert Pease (host):

    That’s something to watch really closely this election and future elections. The diversity, direction, and potentially moderating effect of the Latino vote in many key states. The Purple Principle also featured an extended series on state level polarization this year, from east to west, and up north to Alaska with important guest insights all along the way. Take Texas, for example. We’ve all heard for years that Texas is trending less red and more purple. Was that really the case this 2022 election? The much vaunted and hugely expensive Governor’s race between the GOP incumbent, Greg Abbot, and former Democratic Congressman and presidential candidate Beto O’Rourke–that didn’t turn out to be a close contest after all, with Abbot winning by at least ten points. In episode two of that series, Texas Monthly Editor in Chief Dan Goodgame explains why national Democratic messaging doesn’t strike a chord in the Lone Star State.

    Dan Goodgame:

    So there's, you know, people who don't like Republican policies are, you know, very quick of course to place all the blame there. But Democrats here similarly play to their base rather than to centrists. I mean, you would think after 27 years of losing, you'd try something different. But they remain unable to frame a message that might appeal to a majority of Texans.

    Robert Pease (host):

    Goodgame is a former White House Correspondent for Time Magazine and a Pulitzer Prize finalist.

    Dan Goodgame:

    And they're content to appeal, most of them, to relatively liberal Democrats in the cities and the urban counties that the Democratic Party controls. I mean, defunding the police, opening the borders, abolishing the Border Patrol in which thousands of Texas Latinos serve, abolishing the oil and gas industry, abolishing private health insurance, seizing semi-automatic rifles. This is not a winning platform in Texas.

    Robert Pease (host):

    One party rule will almost certainly remain the case in red Texas and also in blue California. Our California series guest, noted author and columnist Joel Kotkin, conveys his view of the policy consequences of one partyism in the Golden State.

    Joel Kotkin:

    Well the problem that’s happening in California is when I came here in 1971 and, you know, really started covering politics I would say by the mid-seventies, we had a two party system. And within that two party system, there were moderate and conservative factions, there was great deal of debate, and we were usually able to find some sort of ability to make decent policy here in California, based on some degree of rationality.

    Robert Pease (host):

    Kotkin has published numerous books and articles on California, national and global geopolitical trends, including the 2020 book: The Coming of Neo-Feudalism.

    Joel Kotkin:

    In the last 20 to 30 years, and particularly in the last 10, the state has become essentially a one party state. And so now if you're a Democratic officeholder, as one congressperson said to me, you basically only look to your left. You're only worried about a threat from your left.

    [Midroll Ad Break]

    Robert Pease (host):

    How many other states in 2023 will end up with one party rule, often called trifectas, when one party controls the governor’s seat and both houses of the state legislature? 37 state trifectas going into this election. Could be at least 40 coming out of it. If Michigan, Maryland and Massachusetts join the list without others dropping off. That would be a record high in recent decades. In our Massachusetts episode, former Democratic Governor Deval Patrick described the broad coalition building that can be lost under one party rule. And with it the role of states as national policy laboratories. His reference point is the healthcare reform of his GOP predecessor, Mitt Romney. Soon afterwards, it became a template for the Obama administration’s Affordable Care Act.

    Deval Patrick:

    So Governor Romney signed healthcare reform during our campaign. He had already announced he was leaving office. And I was asked by a reporter what I thought about it.

    Robert Pease (host):

    A respected civil rights lawyer, Patrick was the second African American elected to a Governor’s office in the U.S., serving two terms.

    Deval Patrick:

    And I said, this is a terrific achievement. And an important, uh, important one, not just politically, but practically in the lives of people. And lo and behold, I'm driving along the, uh, the pike and my phone rings and it's Governor Romney. And he said, that was a very gracious thing of you to say. And I said, well, I believed it. I said, well done. And I'm proud of the fact, you know, that, that bill, we call it, you call it Romneycare, I will say it took effect the day that I took office. And, uh, so it was up to us to implement it. And there are 98% of our residents today who are insured. I still don't think there's any state that can beat us, can beat that.

    Robert Pease (host):

    Even a trifecta state can remain purple and competitive if closely divided, such as the state of Georgia, which has seen a fair amount of split ticket voting this election. Incumbent GOP Governor Brian Kemp, who stood up to Trump in 2020, he easily held off a second challenge from Democrat Stacy Abrams. And GOP Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, also a Trump target back in the primary, he won reelection as well. But the U.S. Senate race in Georgia, between Trump backed challenger Herschel Walker and incumbent Democrat Raphael Warnock, that’s virtually deadlocked and may go to a runoff, as have the previous two Georgia Senate races. Can’t get much more purple than that. So far this election though, more than a few Trump backed candidates have been soundly defeated in purple states, such as Senate candidates Don Bolduc in New Hampshire, and Dr. Oz in Pennsylvania. In our Georgia episode, political scientist Charles Bullock advised us to keep an eye on Trump’s endorsement batting average coming out of these 2022 elections.

    Charles Bullock:

    And, if Trump, you know, fares poorly overall, then that may be what results in the Republican Party or the legion of the Republican Party moving away from the former President, Trump.

    Robert Pease (host):

    Dr. Bullock is the author, co-author or contributor to over 30 books and 250 articles, including, the recently published 7th edition of The New Politics of the Old South.

    Charles Bullock:

    If his candidates win, if he has a very high batting average, then that just solidifies his position as leader of the party. And probably also solidifies him as the Republican nominee for 2024.

    Robert Pease (host):

    Regardless of outcome, Morehouse College Political Science and Law Professor Adrienne Jones – she notes some silver lining in the Warnock-Walker Senate race, the first such race in Georgia history with two African American candidates.

    Adrienne Jones:

    And, um, yes, you know, some diversity in the electorate I think is important. In the state of Georgia, you know, there are, you know, maybe one or two at max black legislators who have ever been members of the GOP. Every single person who's Black and legislating here is, in the state, is Democrat. Um, and I'm sure that some diversity in that regard, uh, would be excellent. And I think it would provide some balance in terms of the research that I've done.

    Robert Pease (host):

    That’s another question to ponder this election eve and beyond. Will a diversifying Republican Party moderate GOP rhetoric and positioning if GOP minority candidates are elected? Moderates and independents are also minorities in Washington, D.C. and state capitols after decades of aggressive gerrymandering and polarizing primaries. The state of Alaska is attempting to reverse that. It’s first in the nation to use ranked choice voting across all elections, federal and state, this year. One of those candidates was former Independent Governor Bill Walker, seeking to win that office back from incumbent Republican Mike Dunleavy. Looks like that effort came up short. But prior to this run, Walker talked to us about the transformative effect open primaries with rank choice voting could have on elected officials.

    Bill Walker:

    You know, it's hard to say how it's going to play out from the standpoint of how in a particular election. But what will play out, it will take away the, um, someone being primaried as a result of what they do. I'm excited about seeing how we allow people to do what they're elected to do. And a lot of people were elected to go out and solve problems, and now they should be able to do that without fear of being primaried in a closed primary.

    Robert Pease (host):

    So please keep an eye on Alaska this 2022 election, not just who wins, but how they win. And whether media coverage provides enough context on the ranked choice voting system where voters rank their candidate preferences. This combination of open primaries plus ranked choice voting is a 2022 Nevada ballot measure that does seem poised to pass. If so, that’ll energize similar efforts in other states. So imagine, at some point soon, ten U.S. states sending twenty U.S. senators and eighty representatives to Congress to focus more on problem solving, less on fundraising and primary challenges. Finally for better but probably worse, keep an eye on social media, particularly Twitter during the election aftermath. Whatever guardrails Twitter had in place on misinformation, they seem to be coming off at a precarious time for democracy with far right candidates and supporters continuing to question election integrity. That reminded us of some important research led by Dr. Chris Bail of Duke University’s Polarization Lab.

    Chris Bail:

    And the result is that the very people whose opinions I think are most important for us to hear, the moderates that, you know, many of whom I think are your listeners, are invisible. The data point I love to share is that about 6% of people on Twitter are responsible for the majority of the content about politics on Twitter. And that 6% of people has really extreme views.

    Robert Pease (host):

    Dr. Bail is the author of Breaking The Social Media Prism.

    Chris Bail:

    So the social media prism, it's amplifying extremists, it's fueling extremism, but it's also muting moderates who really have no interest in status seeking on social media, right? Their status, their hard-fought status is attached to their livelihoods, their families, their friends.

    Robert Pease (host):

    We hope these guest insights help inform your own analysis of this 2022 election, with that looming shadow of the 2024 presidential race hanging heavily overhead. Next episode, we’ll be looking more closely at the new U.S. Senate, where 60 votes is often needed, and thus the prospects for bipartisanship with former centrist Democratic Senator Doug Jones of Alabama. We hope you’ll join us for that episode as our third season winds down with indie-minded perspective on our all too tribal and zero sum politics. This is Robert Pease for the whole Purple Principle Team. Original music by Ryan Adair Rooney.

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